The top 2 this weekend will remain unchanged as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary look set to repeat at the top. After a colossal $191M 5-day opening - the biggest debut of 2026 so far, the Illumination sequel is tracking somewhere in the $60-70M range for its sophomore frame. That would put the domestic total well past $300M by Sunday night. The question isn't whether Mario holds #1, it's whether the drop lands closer to the first film's stellar -37% or something steeper. Weekday holds have been encouraging (eg. a $16.8M Monday), but it'll still end the week about 20-22M behind the original. Every day besides opening day has been behind (although not by a huge amount) the first movie. The "second Mario" novelty factor may not carry quite as far as the original's cultural-event status did in 2023. Right now, we're predicting it'll end up 50-100M behind the $575M domestic total of the first - but this weekend will be telling.
Project Hail Mary is set to continue its remarkable run. Ryan Gosling's sci-fi adaptation has now crossed $230 domestic, overtaking Interstellar's domestic total. It should add another $20M this frame for a running total of over $250M. It's still tracking between Dune: Part Two and Oppenheimer, and we're anticipating it ends up closer to Oppenheimer's $320M than Dune's 280M when all is said and done. The legs here have been genuinely impressive and with no real competition this week, there's no reason to expect anything different now. This is the kind of movie that plays through April and into May.
The biggest new wide release is You, Me & Tuscany, Universal's rom-com pairing Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page. Tracking has been all over the map, and this will be a test of Halle Bailey' Star power. At this point, anything over $10M would be a solid result (although definitely not a guarantee) on an $18M budget, and the real story will be word of mouth and legs moving forward.
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's The Drama should hold decently in its second frame after a $14.4M debut. A24 counter-programming against Mario worked and the word of mouth is skewing positive here. The aim would be a sub 50% drop in the $7–9M range. After strong weekdays, the upper end feels doable. Total should be pushing $30M by Sunday and we expect it to track closely with A24 and Zendaya's Challengers, which ended up at 50M.
Hoppers should round out the top 5, with a stabilization after Mario headed towards a $165-170M final.
