The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should three-peat at #1 with around $35-40M in its third frame. After a 48% second-weekend drop to $68M, the film sits at around $320 million heading into this weekend. The drop was steeper than the original’s -37%, and the sequel continues to trail the first film by about $50M at the same point. A $450M domestic total still looks achievable, but $500M is increasingly unlikely. Helping the case is the lack of family options as competition, so Mario’s core should hold firm. Worldwide, the film has crossed $700M and is still on track for $1B+ globally — potentially $1.1B.
Project Hail Mary continues causing at a sky-high altitude after a fantastic -24% fourth-weekend drop to $24.1M, Ryan Gosling’s sci-fi epic sits over $260M domestic, already with a 3.2x multiplier. This weekend, the film returns to IMAX in a limited one-week engagement, which could provide a boost. We’re expecting $15-17M for the frame (which was the low-end for last weekend’s prediction — to put its strong holds in context), which would push the total past $275M. At this trajectory, $300M domestic is locked and the question is now whether it can catch Oppenheimer’s $322M. Right now, it’s less than $10M behind Oppenheimer at the same point — and the weekends continue to help it close that gap. At this point, it’s looking more likely than not. Expect it to coast past $600M worldwide this weekend on its way to around $700M — a huge result.
The biggest new wide release is Lee Cronin’s The Mummy, Warner Bros.’ R-rated horror reimagining from the Evil Dead Rise director. Tracking has landed in the $10-20M range, but at this point, the lower end is feeling more likely. Lee Cronin earned goodwill with Evil Dead Rise ($67M domestic on a $15M budget), and the Mummy IP has built-in awareness, but excitement is low and early reactions have been mixed-average, with a RT score of 54% currently. The $80M budget means this needs significant international business to break even. Anything under $15M would be trouble — and anything over will feel like a very modest win, at this point.
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson’s The Drama continues to show great legs for A24. After a -39% second-weekend drop to $8.7M, the film has grossed $30.8M through 17 days and is comfortably ahead of Challengers’ pace at the same point. We’re expecting another sub-40% hold in the $5M range, which would put the total near $40M. A $55-60M domestic finish looks increasingly realistic, unless it craters against big competition the next two weekends (Michael and The Devil Wears Prada will be siphoning some direct audience away from this). Whatever happens against that competition, this one is headed to $100M+ worldwide, which is a great result.
You, Me & Tuscany faces a tough second frame against new competition. The Halle Bailey rom-com opened to $7.8M, which is softer than hoped but the A- CinemaScore and 94% RT audience score suggest legs are possible. A $4-5M second weekend would be fine, but after this weekend, expect this to get crushed by the upcoming competition.
Also worth watching: Normal, Bob Odenkirk’s action film from John Wick creator Derek Kolstad, marks Magnolia Pictures’ widest release ever at 2,000 theaters and could modestly surprise as counter-programming for the action crowd. Mother Mary, A24’s Anne Hathaway and Michaela Coel music drama directed by David Lowery, opens in limited release this weekend before going wide April 24 with a 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. Lorne from Focus Features has a limited release which hopefully nabs it a strong theatre average to continue expanding in the weeks to come (reviews are decent at 70%), and Exit 8, NEON’s critically acclaimed Japanese horror-game adaptation (95% RT), hopes to hold well on strong word of mouth after its $2,837 per-theater-average debut last weekend.
Recap will be posted Sunday evening after weekend estimates.