The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should three-peat at #1 with around $35-40M in its third frame. After a 48% second-weekend drop to $68M, the film sits at around $320 million heading into this weekend. The drop was steeper than the original’s -37%, and the sequel continues to trail the first film by about $50M at the same point. A $450M domestic total still looks achievable, but $500M is increasingly unlikely. Helping the case is the lack of family options as competition, so Mario’s core should hold firm. Worldwide, the film has crossed $700M and is still on track for $1B+ globally — potentially $1.1B.
Project Hail Mary continues cruising at a sky-high altitude after a fantastic -24% fourth-weekend drop to $24.1M, Ryan Gosling’s sci-fi epic sits over $260M domestic, already with a 3.2x multiplier. This weekend, the film returns to IMAX in a limited one-week engagement, which could provide a boost. We’re expecting $15-17M for the frame (which was the low-end for last weekend’s prediction — to put its strong holds in context), which would push the total past $275M. At this trajectory, $300M domestic is locked and the question is now whether it can catch Oppenheimer’s $322M. Right now, it’s less than $10M behind Oppenheimer at the same point — and the weekends continue to help it close that gap. At this point, it’s looking more likely than not. Expect it to coast past $600M worldwide this weekend on its way to around $700M — a huge result.
The biggest new wide release is Lee Cronin’s The Mummy, Warner Bros.’ R-rated horror reimagining from the Evil Dead Rise director. Tracking has landed in the $10-20M range, but at this point, the lower end is feeling more likely. Lee Cronin earned goodwill with Evil Dead Rise ($67M domestic on a $15M budget), and the Mummy IP has built-in awareness, but excitement is low and early reactions have been mixed-average, with a RT score of 54% currently. The saving grace is the modest $22M budget, roughly in line with Evil Dead Rise’s $15M, which keeps this comfortably profitable even on a soft opening. A sub-$15M debut would still feel disappointing for a wide release, but the financial floor is forgiving.
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson’s The Drama continues to show great legs for A24. After a -39% second-weekend drop to $8.7M, the film has grossed $30.8M through 17 days and is comfortably ahead of Challengers’ pace at the same point. We’re expecting another sub-40% hold in the $5M range, which would put the total near $40M. A $55-60M domestic finish looks increasingly realistic, unless it craters against big competition the next two weekends (Michael and The Devil Wears Prada will be siphoning some direct audience away from this). Whatever happens against that competition, this one is headed to $100M+ worldwide, which is a great result.
You, Me & Tuscany faces a tough second frame against new competition. The Halle Bailey rom-com opened to $7.8M, which is softer than hoped but the A- CinemaScore and 94% RT audience score suggest legs are possible. A $4-5M second weekend would be fine, but after this weekend, expect this to get crushed by the upcoming competition.
Also worth watching: Normal, Bob Odenkirk’s action film from John Wick creator Derek Kolstad, marks Magnolia Pictures’ widest release ever at 2,000 theaters and could modestly surprise as counter-programming for the action crowd. Mother Mary, A24’s Anne Hathaway and Michaela Coel music drama directed by David Lowery, opens in limited release this weekend before going wide April 24 with a 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. Lorne from Focus Features has a limited release which hopefully nabs it a strong theatre average to continue expanding in the weeks to come (reviews are decent at 70%), and Exit 8, NEON’s critically acclaimed Japanese horror-game adaptation (95% RT), hopes to hold well on strong word of mouth after its $2,837 per-theater-average debut last weekend.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie three-peated at #1 with an estimated $35 million in its third frame, down 49% from last weekend’s $69 million. Through 19 days the sequel stands at $355 million domestic and is closing in on $750 million worldwide. It’s trailing the original Super Mario Bros. Movie domestically by almost $90 million, a gap that will continue to widen. We’d need a meaningful stabilization on weekday holds over the next two weeks to stay on track for $450M ($500M is long gone), and the -49% this weekend doesn’t suggest that’s coming.
The bigger story this weekend is Project Hail Mary’s stunning -15% drop to $20.5 million in its fifth weekend on the heels of a return to IMAX. That’s actually one of the biggest 5th weekends of all time, essentially tied with Barbie, which opened to double what Project Hail Mary opened with. A fifth-weekend decline under 20% for a wide Sci-Fi release is essentially unheard of outside of holiday corridors, and with that hold the film reaches $285 million domestic on a 3.54x multiplier. It’s now less than $40 million behind Oppenheimer’s $322 million at the same point in release and is now tracking ahead day-for-day, and has broken away from Dune: Part Two’s $282 million finish. Our model has been predicting a $296–$322 million finish for weeks now, and at this point, it’s looking like it will crush the high end and end closer to $350 million. That’s not the fault of the model, that just speaks to how unprecedented this run is becoming. A worldwide total final of $700M is in view.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy opened at #3 with an estimated $13.5 million from 3,304 theaters, landing at the very lower end of the $10–20M tracking window. Warner Bros.’ R-rated reimagining of the Universal Monster got a mixed 54% Tomatometer and a 46 Metacritic, with audiences grading warmer (76% RT Audience, 3.1 Letterboxd). Our prediction model has the film landing around $27 million domestic on 2.0x horror legs — a finish in the mid-$20s would still be a struggle against reported production costs and would likely push the studio to lean heavily on international for the breakeven case.
The Drama held at #4 with $4.8 million in its third weekend, a solid -44% drop for A24’s dramedy, only a little worse than last weekend’s drop. Through 17 days the film has earned $39.7 million and is still pacing ahead of Challengers, which ended its run at $50 million. A $55–60 million domestic finish is plausible if it can hold against big competition the next two weekends. Even if it “only” gets to $50 million, this is a very strong for a mid-budget A24 theatrical play.
You, Me & Tuscany took a harder second-weekend hit than hoped, dropping 51% to $3.8 million at #5. All things considered, that’s not a great hold, considering it’s a quiet weekend and it got an A- CinemaScore and 94% audience score. Through 10 days the Halle Bailey & Regé-Jean Page rom-com sits at $14.4 million. Our prediction model moved from Phase 1 to Phase 2 this weekend on that -51% drop, with the midpoint predicted total being $24 million with a range of $20–$28M. That feels like a distant fading dream — if Tuscany can’t hold steady against something like The Mummy, good luck against direct competition like Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 over the next 2 weekends.
Hoppers rounded out the top five with $2.9 million for -30% in its seventh weekend, pushing the Pixar original to $161 million domestic on its way to ~$170M. It’s a genuinely great result and a reminder that word of mouth still gets animated originals paid.
Two other wide openers had softer debuts. Normal, Magnolia’s widest-ever release, opened sixth with $2.65 million from 2,060 theaters, well below the distributor’s hopes for the Bob Odenkirk action-crime vehicle. An 80% Tomatometer and C+ CinemaScore weren’t enough to drive any interest here, ending up as a blip on the schedule. Focus’ documentary Lorne opened with $270K from 414 theaters, a pretty poor showing (that $650 theatre average is horrendous).
A24’s Mother Mary opened on 5 screens with a strong $33,613 per-theater average ahead of its April 24 wide break. The Anne Hathaway musical drama got a 72% Tomatometer and 56 on Metacritic — mixed but favorable enough that the wider rollout should sustain a platform premium.
The weekend’s most notable expansion was The Christophers, which jumped from platform into 364 theaters and spiked +639% week-over-week to $596K. It’s a small film by any measure, but the per-screen trajectory suggests Bleecker Street will keep expanding through early May if the hold continues. Exit 8 also continued to chart at #8 with $669K, pushing its cume to $2.8M in NEON’s limited run.