Michael is opening big — the question is just how big it will go. Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic has seen tracking climb into the $70M+ range, up from $50M+ earlier this month, a number that would crack Straight Outta Compton’s $60.2M all-time music-biopic opening record and soar past Elvis ($31M) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($51M). Presales are strong, and we’re expecting this to be a walk-up friendly movie too, especially if word-of-mouth is good. Lionsgate is going wide on 3,900 theaters including 1,600 IMAX/PLF screens, and the Jaafar Jackson casting plus the Jackson estate endorsement have driven the kind of pre-sales that usually foreshadow a breakout. Reviews offer a bit of a wrinkle in the plan: currently at 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and 38 on Metacritic, but the early word is that it’s a crowd pleaser, even if critics are sour. Its $170M production budget means it’ll need to go past $400M worldwide to justify itself, but we’re seeing big excitement globally, so that may prove an easy bar. Bohemian Rhapsody is the high water mark with $216M domestic and a huge $879M globally — but that rode a wave of Oscar nominations and feels like a couple of pegs too high here (at least worldwide). Domestically though, Queen’s total is well in reach for the King of Pop.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie falls to #2 in its fourth weekend and lands somewhere around $20–25M, a 40–50% drop from the $36.5M third frame, which is a far cry from The Super Mario Bros. Movie’s $40M fourth weekend. Through 20 days the film sits at $359M and will push $380M by Sunday. While this should still cruise past the $420–430M range of last year’s three family biggies (Zootopia 2 at $428M, A Minecraft Movie at $424M, and Lilo & Stitch also at $424M) — it likely won’t be by very much.
Project Hail Mary crosses $300 million this weekend. After last weekend’s stunning -15% fifth-frame hold, the film only needs ~$10M across its sixth frame to cross the milestone. Even a pessimistic -45% drop (post-IMAX-boost with big new competition) still clears it, but we’re thinking the hold will be more like 35–40%. Surpassing Oppenheimer’s $322M now feels like a sure bet.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy heads into its second weekend needing the kind of hold it’s unlikely to get. The film opened soft at $13.5M, sits at $14.6M through four days, and faces a horror genre baseline of 55–65% second-weekend drops, which points to a 2nd frame of $4.5–6M and a domestic finish in the $22–27M range. Not great, but international has been stronger and the production budget was modest at $22M, so all-in-all totally fine for Warner Bros.
The Drama returns for its fourth weekend after a -44% hold and $40M through 17 days. The A24 comedy is pacing ahead of Challengers’ $50M final and a $55–60M finish is locked if the film can hold under -45% against Michael’s arrival. Audience crossover between Michael and The Drama is real as both skew older for date-night, so a steeper drop is the bigger risk this weekend.
A24’s Mother Mary expands from its 5-theater platform launch (massive $33,613 PTA) into wide release this weekend. The Anne Hathaway musical drama posted mixed-favorable reviews (72% RT, 56 MC) and heads into the same older-skewing date-night market Michael is dominating. $2–4M on the wide opening is likely; the question is whether Hathaway’s name carries the film beyond the A24 core once the platform halo fades.
Recap will be posted Sunday evening after weekend estimates.