Michael back on top; Obsession’s $16.1M opening shatters tracking

This is the quietest frame of the May corridor, and the top of the chart shows it as the top three will remain unchanged from last weekend. And it should be a close one between the top two this weekend. The Devil Wears Prada 2 enters its third weekend at $151.6M domestic and was below Michael on Monday, back above on Tuesday, and then dropped back down on Wednesday — although all three days were incredibly close. The weekly drops though are much stronger for Michael, with Wednesday seeing just a 30% drop from last week while DWP2 was at 45%. Based on this trend, Michael should take back #1 this weekend — impressive for a film entering its 4th week. Both had impressive Mother’s Day grosses so the weekend drop might be harsher than otherwise, but that might even out considering there’s no real new competition this weekend. DWP2 could pull a 40% drop for ~$25M for the frame and a cume around $180M, still on pace for our model’s $241M midpoint with Memorial Day still ahead. The 2006 original lost only -31% in its third weekend on its way to 4.53x legs — the sequel’s curve looks to be steeper than that, but 3.2x legs and $250M is still doable here. Worldwide, $600M is a lock and $700M is still more than doable considering the international/domestic split is currently about 65%/35%.

Michael crossed $250M domestic (now at $256M) and is becoming a leggy hit the likes of Project Hail Mary. It should enjoy the limited competition with a drop in the 30s. 33% would put it at $25M — within a hair of Prada 2 for #1, although we’re expecting it to do a little better than that and claim the top spot. In our featured comparison, Michael is still more than $20M ahead at the same point in their runs and this will be a comparison to watch in the weeks ahead as we see if Michael can continue the momentum as it shoots for $350M+ domestic and probably $800M+ globally. The wildcard is Japan, which hasn’t launched yet and is obsessed with Michael Jackson — a breakout there would not be surprising at all and could push it even higher to $900M+, surpassing Bohemian Rhapsody’s $911M as the top musical/biopic of all time. Interestingly, that movie earned over $110M in Japan — the highest grossing film of the year there in 2018. At this point, it’s best not to bet against Michael.

Mortal Kombat II now has to navigate the brutal weekend-2 drop that defines its genre. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves lost -63% in its second frame from a nearly identical $37M opening (and finaled at $93M); while the 2021 Mortal Kombat original shed -73% (admittedly on day-and-date HBO Max). We have MKII at -60% to ~$14M, putting the cume at ~$60M after 11 days, on track to miss $100M and maybe total at $80–90M domestically. While not bad, it’s also probably not enough to justify a sequel especially with relatively soft numbers overseas. That being said, it’s basically where we predicted it would land in our May long range preview, so this is not surprising either.

The Sheep Detectives gets its first real word-of-mouth test. The Amazon MGM original opened to $15.1M at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and faces no family competition this weekend. Anything in the double digits (32% hold or better) would be really terrific headed into Memorial Day weekend and is extremely doable for the sheep. Of course, if it lands closer to a 40% drop it’s still in healthy shape. Our model’s $50M midpoint feels like the floor at this point — this is a nice little win for Amazon MGM, not on the same level as PHM, but continues to position them as a true theatrical player.

None of the three new wides are tracking above single digits. Black Bear’s In the Grey (Guy Ritchie directing Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal) is the most viable: Ritchie-Cavill-Gyllenhaal in an R-rated action thriller is exactly the package that has cleared $15M openings when timing and reviews align, but these films have consistently underperformed lately and reviews have been mixed. The problem is these just don’t feel like they’re worth leaving the couch and getting to the cinema for anymore. We have In the Grey at $5–7M with a $15M–$20M domestic ceiling. Amazon MGM’s Is God Is is a hard-R indie play that would feel at home on streaming, and Focus Features’ Obsession is a contained psychological thriller in a slot where similar shape releases historically wash out. Both are tracking $2M–$4M opening with sub-$10M final ceilings. Combined, the three new releases probably add about $12M–$14M to the weekend total, which is exactly what a breather frame is supposed to look like.

Project Hail Mary heads into week 9 at $329.8M, with last weekend’s toppling of Oppenheimer now firmly in the rearview. The next films it will jump ahead of are all biggies: Batman v Superman’s $330.4M, Guardians of the Galaxy’s $333.2M, and Joker’s $335M. Quite the resume. Expect another ~$5M for $335M heading into Memorial Day, with $350M still the goal depending on how many screens it keeps over Memorial Day weekend.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie heads into week 7 at $413.3M domestic and continues to underperform the model on the back half. Another -40% to ~$4M puts the Universal sequel at ~$418M after this frame. Our model’s $452M midpoint prediction will end up too high here by about $20M, which speaks to the more front-loaded nature of this film.