This is the quietest frame of the May corridor, and the top of the chart shows it — three holdovers within a few million of one another and no marquee new release to break the stalemate. The Devil Wears Prada 2 enters its third weekend at $151.6M domestic and held the slimmest possible lead over Michael on Tuesday ($4.77M to $4.72M). A -38% post-Mother’s-Day drop puts the sequel at ~$26M for the frame and the cume around $178M, on pace for the model’s $241M midpoint with Memorial Day still ahead. The 2006 original lost only -31% in its third weekend on its way to 4.53x legs — the sequel’s curve is steeper than that, but $250M is locked and $275M is back in view if next weekend’s hold lands closer to the original’s.
Michael crossed $250M domestic on Tuesday — only the second 2026 release to clear that bar after Project Hail Mary — and is tracking neck-and-neck with DWP2 on weekday grosses despite a one-week head start in release. A -32% week-4 hold to ~$26M puts Michael within a hair of Prada 2 for #1 and the cume at ~$276M, with $300M now locked rather than a stretch goal. The Mother’s-Day-free comparison this frame is the cleanest read yet on whether the 2.58x legs can stretch to the model’s $357M midpoint or settle closer to $310M. Bohemian Rhapsody’s $216M domestic looks like a comp from another era at this point.
Mortal Kombat II now has to navigate the brutal weekend-2 drop that defines its genre. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves lost -63% in its second frame from a nearly identical $37M opening (and finaled at $93M); the 2021 original shed -73% (admittedly on day-and-date HBO Max). We have MKII at -62% to ~$14.5M with In the Grey siphoning a small piece of the R-rated action audience. That puts the cume at ~$60M after 11 days, on track for the model’s $104M midpoint but with the back half still a fight. $100M is in reach; $90M is the floor; $120M is gone.
The Sheep Detectives gets its first real word-of-mouth test. The Amazon MGM original opened to $15.1M at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and faces no family competition in either of the next two frames. A -32% hold to ~$10.5M would track right in the pocket for a PG family release with no challenger; anything north of $12M would be a flag for genuine breakout, with Memorial Day still on deck. The model’s $50M midpoint feels like the floor at this point and $60M+ comes back into view if the family-friendly slot delivers what Amazon clearly thinks it can.
None of the three new wides are tracking above single digits. Black Bear’s In the Grey (Guy Ritchie directing Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal) is the most viable: Ritchie-Cavill-Gyllenhaal in an R-rated action thriller is exactly the package that has cleared $15M openings when timing and reviews align — but Mortal Kombat II still owns the R-rated action lane in week 2, and reviews have been mixed. We have In the Grey at $7M with a $20M–$25M domestic ceiling. Amazon MGM’s Is God Is is a hard-R indie play that would feel at home on streaming, and Focus Features’ Obsession is a contained psychological thriller in a slot where similar shape releases historically wash out. Both are tracking $2M–$4M opening with sub-$10M final ceilings. Combined, the three new releases probably add about $12M–$14M to the weekend total, which is exactly what a breather frame is supposed to look like.
Project Hail Mary heads into week 9 at $329.8M, with last weekend’s Oppenheimer pass ($326.7M) now firmly in the rearview. The near-term comps are Batman v Superman’s $330.4M (Friday) and Guardians of the Galaxy’s $333.2M (early next week). Another -22% to ~$5M puts PHM at $335M heading into Memorial Day, with the model’s $355M midpoint looking like the floor rather than the ceiling. $350M is locked; $375M is in view if Memorial Day delivers anything close to the back-half bump an original sci-fi run typically gets when the competition is this thin.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie heads into week 7 at $413.3M domestic and continues to underperform the model on the back half. Another -40% to ~$4M puts the Universal sequel at ~$418M after this frame. $430M is on track, $440M would require a stabilization that the weekday holds keep declining to give, and $450M is gone. The model’s $452M midpoint was too high by $25M–$30M — not a failure of the prediction, just a sequel that turned out more front-loaded than the original. Hokum rounds out the slate with a -55% drop to ~$1.5M after its weak sophomore frame; $15M–$17M final is still on the table, a respectable result for a $6.4M opener but well short of the breakout Neon was hoping for.
Recap coming Sunday evening after the weekend wraps.