Star Wars returns — and The Mandalorian & Grogu is tracking for the franchise’s softest opening yet

After the longest gap in the franchise’s history — 6½ years since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker closed out the Skywalker saga in December 2019 — Star Wars is finally back on the big screen. The Mandalorian & Grogu is a lock for #1, but the tracking is the story: $71–85M across the Friday–Sunday frame and $85–100M over the four-day Memorial Day window. That comfortably wins the weekend, and yet by Star Wars standards it’s startlingly modest — the 3-day figure would be the softest opening for any theatrical Star Wars film, slipping under Solo: A Star Wars Story’s $84.4M from this exact Memorial Day slot in 2018. Reviews have landed mixed, and on a reported $165M net budget that is not the launch Lucasfilm wanted for the brand’s theatrical comeback. The real question is the multiplier: Solo cratered after its soft start and legged just 2.5x to $213.8M, while a Mandalorian audience that has lived with these characters across three streaming seasons could hold considerably better. If word of mouth steadies, $200M domestic is in reach; if it plays like Solo, $175M is the honest target.

Michael slides to #2 and barely loses a step. The Lionsgate biopic took back the top spot last weekend and rolls into its fifth frame at $289.2M domestic through Tuesday, with the Memorial Day box to cushion the drop. Expect something in the high-20s percent range for roughly $15M and a cume near $305M by Sunday night. $350M domestic is locked, and worldwide the film is closing on $750M with Japan — Michael Jackson’s single biggest international market — still not in the mix. Once Japan opens, $900M is the floor and $1B becomes a live conversation. Five weeks in, betting against Michael has been a losing trade.

Obsession gets its first real word-of-mouth test, and the early read is excellent. Focus Features’ psychological horror opened to $17.2M and has already banked $23.8M through five days — the weekday holds were strong enough that it actually rose on cheap-ticket Tuesday. Horror weekend-two drops are typically brutal, -55% or worse, but a 96% Tomatometer, an A- CinemaScore, and the Memorial Day tailwind should soften that meaningfully. Call it a drop in the 40s rather than the 60s for around $9M and a cume near $37M. The $40–50M domestic range we floated on opening weekend now looks like the floor, and $55M is in play if the holiday holds.

Mortal Kombat II has nothing left to defend. After the genre-mandated -65% second-weekend collapse, the video-game sequel sits at $64.9M through Tuesday and now runs its third frame straight into a Star Wars juggernaut. Another drop in the 50s puts it near $5M for the weekend and a cume around $73M. $80M is the realistic ceiling and $100M has been out of reach for over a week. It is, almost to the dollar, the result we projected in the May long-range preview — not a disaster, but not the number Warner Bros. needs to justify MK3.

The Sheep Detectives keeps quietly out-legging expectations. The Amazon MGM family original is at $32.6M through Tuesday on a healthy 2.2x multiplier, and while The Mandalorian & Grogu will pull some of the family audience, the Memorial Day box is big enough for both. A hold in the 30s percent for roughly $6M would push it past $40M, and a $50M finish — once the ceiling of our model’s range — is now firmly the expectation.

The weekend’s other new wide is Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters, a dystopian shoplifting comedy with no meaningful tracking and a niche arthouse profile — anything mid-single-digits would be a genuine win in that lane. Among the holdovers, Project Hail Mary rolls into week 10 at $336.1M and should clear $340M over the holiday, still chasing $350M, while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is at $419.7M in week 8 and will inch toward a finish around $425M. Memorial Day Monday hands every one of them a fourth day on the official frame — a quiet but real bump on a weekend that belongs, for better or worse, to Star Wars.