The biggest opening in A24’s history runs straight into the most crowded frame of early summer: Scary Movie 6 is tracking to take #1 with the franchise record in reach, Masters of the Universe opens a $200M gamble Amazon badly needs to work, and Backrooms faces the weekend-2 test that decides whether $200M domestic is real. And then there’s Obsession, which at this point simply refuses to drop.
Scary Movie 6
Tracking has climbed all month: Deadline’s mid-May early look had $35–40M, Variety now says $45–50M from ~3,400 theaters, and Box Office Theory sees $45–55M with the studio lowballing at $40M. First-choice strength is with women under 25 and diverse walk-up audiences — exactly the crowd that turns parody openings into overperformances. The franchise record is Scary Movie 3’s $49.7M from 2003, and it is genuinely in reach. On a $30M budget, even the studio’s sandbagged number is a win; the high end makes this the comedy story of the year.
Backrooms
The record-setter gets its test. Variety is the optimist at up to $48–50M (about -40%); Box Office Pro is down near the $30M range. Split the difference with the data: the B- CinemaScore and a record, hype-driven bow say frontloading, and the weekday holds (a record $7.6M Monday — the best ever for R-rated horror — but -58% Monday-over-Sunday) read the same way. We’re calling a mid-50s drop to $36–42M — comfortably clear of the Five Nights at Freddy’s -76% floor, short of Variety’s hope. It crosses $100M before Friday regardless, A24’s first $100M domestic film ever, and even our low end puts it near $145M through ten days.
Masters of the Universe
Certified Fresh at 75% and still tracking like a problem: Box Office Theory has $25–34M, Variety $30–35M from ~3,500 locations, World of Reel as low as $25–30M — against a $200M budget. Pre-sales are comping to Transformers One rather than the event films Amazon wants, and the demo skews men 35+, the audience most likely to wait for streaming. Even the top of the range is the kind of opening that needs $400M+ worldwide legs this release calendar will not give it — Toy Story 5 lands June 19 and Supergirl June 26, and both will take its screens.
Obsession
+39% in weekend 2, +10% in weekend 3 — the first film outside the holidays since E.T. in 1982 to rise twice — and it was still up +4% weekly on Tuesday. Box Office Theory literally declined to forecast it this week. A normal film at this point drops 35–40%, so we’ll pencil $18–22M, but nothing about this run has been normal and it has beaten every call for three straight weeks. The one cloud: trade rumors of an early-to-mid June streaming date. If that date is real, this is the last unconstrained weekend of the biggest word-of-mouth story of the decade. $150M domestic stays the target.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
The -70% second weekend told the story, and the weekday holds (-51% weekly) haven’t changed it. Expect another drop in the mid-50s to roughly $10–13M and a cume around $157M through Sunday. $200M now needs a stabilization that has not shown up in a single data point, and June’s tentpoles are about to take its theaters — a finish near $190M remains our call.
Power Ballad
From a $17.8K per-theater average on 10 screens to a wide break — and Lionsgate hasn’t circulated tracking, which usually tells you the studio expects a slow build rather than a splash. Our call from the John Carney lane (these films open small and leg out or they don’t open at all) is low-to-mid single digits, $4–7M, with an 87% Tomatometer doing the long-tail work. The bet here is legs, not the opening.
One wildcard the chart should make room for: The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, a Fathom event release tracking $10.5–15.5M — enough to slip past The Mandalorian & Grogu into the top five. All told, Box Office Theory has the top five at $140M+, which would run +61% over the same frame last year — early summer 2026 keeps overdelivering.
A strong weekend at the box office with two new openers essentially matching expectations, one surprise breakout event-film, and some great depth in the top 10.
Scary Movie 6
Scary Movie 6 opened at #1 with an estimated $55.0M, the biggest debut in the franchise’s history and a number that landed right at the top of where we had it tracking. That’s a great result for a $30M Paramount horror-comedy; it’s just a pity the movie turned out so bad, with low critic and audience scores. This could have revived the franchise for more than just one film, but now seems destined to make some good cash right now and then burn out fast. Expect pretty horrible legs here, possibly under 2x the opening weekend, but still, this is a strong opening weekend result that will get the movie over $100M, which was where we had it in our June long-range preview.
Masters of the Universe
Masters of the Universe opened to $29.3M against a reported $170M production budget. The reviews and audience reaction actually ended up pretty good for this type of film, but unfortunately it never managed to improve from where we had seen this for a few months now at right around $30M. While this is a disappointment for Amazon/MGM, it’s a decent opening if you ignore the budget and some good depth for cinemas. This looks to play right around where we pegged it in our June long-range preview — we had compared it to Tron: Ares, which finaled at $73M domestic, and that could be around the same range to expect here too.
Backrooms
Backrooms held its second weekend to $25.9M, down 68%, pushing the A24 horror phenomenon to $135M domestic as the biggest domestic release in A24’s history, and roughly $195M worldwide. A 68% drop is on the steeper side but around expectations considering how big the opening ended up being. On a $10M budget this is one of the most profitable films of the year and it should stabilize in the coming weeks and make its way to around $185–$200M, about double A24’s previous record-holder, Marty Supreme, which topped out at $96M.
Obsession
The hold of the weekend, once again, belongs to Obsession. The Focus thriller had its first ever weekend drop… but just barely, as it only fell 7% in its fourth weekend to $25.6M, lifting its total to $152M on an absurd 8.8x multiplier off a $17M opening. It’s now outpacing A Quiet Place, which opened more than 3x higher at $50M, and actually had a bigger fourth weekend than Sinners, which was a huge phenomenon that ended at over $270M domestic. Obsession’s box office run continues to break new ground. A fourth-weekend drop under 10% for a wide release is essentially unheard of outside holiday corridors, and it’s being powered by an A- CinemaScore and a 96% Tomatometer that keep pulling in fresh audiences. $200M is absolutely locked and you can’t rule out $250M at this point, even if our model predicts a ceiling of $221M.
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act took fifth with $12.4M over its first Fri–Sun, $20.8M across four days for a Fathom event run that vastly outperformed its theatrical-event peers and came in as this weekend’s big surprise that we did not see coming at all. It’ll fade very fast from here, but anything else is gravy at this point.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
The Mandalorian & Grogu collapsed again, down 59% to $10.0M in its third weekend; at $156M domestic, this one now has no chance of hitting $200M and may finish in the $170M-ish range instead, with worldwide numbers that are just underwhelming.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
And quietly, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie finally crossed $1.00 billion worldwide this weekend — the first 2026 release to do it, on a $110M budget. Domestic at $429M+ is also passing last year’s family hits Zootopia 2 ($428M) and A Minecraft Movie ($424M).