Spielberg’s Disclosure Day opens to $44M at #1; Obsession’s -25% fifth continues to stun; Scary Movie 6 craters -73%

Spielberg’s name is certainly a draw, but we haven’t seen that play out in his last few films — West Side Story stalled at a final of $38M domestically and The Fabelmans was more of a specialty play at $17M. Disclosure Day is a more classic Spielberg film, though, where his name should be more of a commercial play this time around.

The opening range here could have been anything from as low as $20M if buzz and reviews didn’t pan out to as high as $80M if it really exploded — but the lower end was always more likely, and we had it in the $30s in our long-range tracking. The good news is we’re seeing a small breakout upward on presales and tracking, to the point where a debut in the $40s looks increasingly likely — a good result for an original story with a not-too-high $115M price tag. Reviews are strong (~83% on Rotten Tomatoes, with praise for Emily Blunt and John Williams’ score), and we still need to see where word-of-mouth lands, but this is starting to look comparable to Ready Player One, which opened to $41.8M in 2018 and legged to $137.7M. It’s not a given it gets those kinds of legs unless it turns out to be a real crowd-pleaser, but if it can open a bit higher in the mid-$40s it should leg to a total over $100M quite easily, possibly closer to $120M. A $50M open is also in play but may be just out of reach in the end. Worldwide still remains a big question mark for a new story, so we’ll see where that lands.

Second place could be a battle between a steep second-weekend drop for Scary Movie 6 and another strong hold for Obsession — and we’d give the edge to Obsession right now, as it’s been back on top of the charts on weekday grosses (wild for a fourth-week title), with drops in the low teens. A quick recap on the record-breaking run so far: it opened to $17.2M four weekends ago, then went up +39% in its second weekend and +14% in its third, before easing only -7% last frame to a $25M fourth weekend. It’ll be sitting close to $170M going into this weekend, where we expect the drop to be small again and settle just above $20M. Obsession hits around $190M by Sunday domestically as it continues its climb, with the target now at $250M. Worldwide could end around $350M, which is phenomenal for a film made for $750K and acquired for $15M.

Last weekend’s champion gets a hard lesson in horror-comedy math. Scary Movie 6 opened to $54.3M but carries a C+ CinemaScore and a 33% Tomatometer, and the genre’s second-weekend gravity is unforgiving. Scream dropped 69% earlier this year, so expect something in the 65–75% range here too — a weekend total of $13–17M and a new domestic cume around $85M, on the way to roughly $110M total. That’s about double the opening weekend, a weak 2x multiplier.

Backrooms crosses into its third weekend at $148M after that steep -68% second-weekend cliff. The weekly holds have been better since, around 50%, which could be the same story this weekend — another ~$13M frame keeps it gliding toward the $170–180M range domestically and maybe $300M worldwide, easily 2.5–3x higher than where anyone had it before the summer. A24’s $10M-budgeted hit is a huge home run.

And then there’s Masters of the Universe, which underwhelmed with $29M last weekend. If it can hold decently this weekend it could still find its way to a respectable $80–90M, but we’re seeing it fall short of that, with a total more likely in the $70–80M range. Expect around a 60% slide to $11–12M and a $50M cume. International launched soft last weekend too, so overall this looks to be under $150M worldwide as a final off a $170M budget — the first true bomb of the summer, even if it turned out (on reviews and audience reactions) to be a pretty fun time at the movies.

The Mandalorian & Grogu should drop another 50% or so for a ~$5M weekend and a $157M domestic total as it shoots for a $170M finish. Worldwide won’t save this one, but it should at least top $300M — a different level than Masters of the Universe, even if it’s still a financial disappointment.

Japan finally launches this weekend (another ~$5M domestically) — a huge market for MJ that should be just what this film needs to get to the $1B mark. It may not quite make it there this weekend, as Japan tends to open smaller and leg out longer, but we should see it get close and cross $950M by Sunday. At that point it’s only a matter of time before it passes Oppenheimer and crosses $1B to become the biggest biopic of all time — it already cruised past Bohemian Rhapsody last weekend.