Pixar takes over the prized mid-June frame: Toy Story 5 is tracking for the biggest opening of 2026 and the best debut in franchise history, while Disclosure Day counterprograms for adults and Obsession quietly crosses $200M.
Toy Story 5
Toy Story 5 should blow the doors off this weekend. Industry tracking has it at $150–175M for the three-day, which would be the biggest opening of 2026 and the best debut in franchise history, soaring past Toy Story 4’s $120.9M bow in 2019. A top-three all-time animated opening is in reach, and worldwide is expected around $275M+. Toy Story 3 launched to $110M in 2010; nine years later Toy Story 4 increased on that to $120M. Anything under that here would be seen as a disappointment, but right now that feels very unlikely as the floor seems set at $130M for the fifth go-around, and as we said, we’re seeing it closer to $150M+ right now. Both 3 and 4 had legs between 3.5x and 4x their openings, which would suggest Toy Story 5 has a realistic path to $500M domestically, easily soaring past the current 2026 #1 — Super Mario Galaxy, which is ending up at $430M domestic.
Disclosure Day
Disclosure Day plays to a completely different audience than Toy Story 5, so it may be able to keep bringing in the older crowd in its second weekend. After a $44.5M opening and a B CinemaScore, a second weekend in the low-$20Ms (roughly -45%) keeps it on track for our ~$120M model number. We think that might be hard to achieve thanks to so-so word of mouth, and Disclosure Day may fall more like 55% or so. Whatever happens, $100M should be locked after this weekend unless it falls off a cliff.
Obsession
Obsession crosses $200M this weekend — a number nobody saw coming off a $17.2M opening. The legs are historic and still climbing past 11x, and another sub-30% hold puts $250M firmly in play. There hasn’t been a wide-release run like this in years; you can expect this to stay in the top 10 well into July after opening in May as it continues to defy gravity. We’ll see how close it ends up getting to Sinners’ $270M+ domestic total that once looked extremely out of reach.
Scary Movie 6
After a -73% second weekend, Scary Movie 6 keeps falling. It’ll clear $100M but the C+ CinemaScore and bad word-of-mouth have capped it, and it should end up with ~$105M or so domestically. A franchise-record opening, then a fast burnout — unfortunately exactly the shape we saw coming.
Backrooms
A24’s biggest movie ever keeps padding its record. Backrooms should ease toward $180M domestic over the next couple of frames; $200M is out of reach, but the all-time A24 crown is long since locked — as is Kane Parsons’ burgeoning career.
The Death of Robin Hood
The Death of Robin Hood counterprograms the family juggernaut with a darker, adult take on the legend. Mid-single-millions is the realistic ceiling opening against Toy Story 5, with Focus’s Girls Like Girls also bowing in limited release. Neither dents the top of the chart, but they give grown-up audiences an alternative.
Pixar delivered exactly the blockbuster the mid-June frame was built for: Toy Story 5 opened to $160 million, the biggest debut of 2026 and the largest in franchise history. Underneath it, Disclosure Day held second, Obsession kept defying gravity in its sixth weekend, and a pair of adult-skewing openers split the scraps.
Toy Story 5
Toy Story 5 opened to a huge $160 million, the biggest debut of 2026 and the largest opening in the franchise, easily clearing Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million (2019) by nearly $40 million. Tack on $152 million overseas and the global bow is $312 million. With an A CinemaScore and the whole summer corridor ahead of it, we should see this make a run for $500M domestically, and it should be an easy $1B worldwide. Toy Story 4’s $434 million franchise record seems very much beatable here, so the real question is how much higher it can go. The last two films both had legs between 3.5 and 4, which would give us a range of $560M–$640M. The upper end feels a little out of reach, but we’ll see how it holds next weekend to get a sense here. Since it’ll easily cruise past the other films in the franchise, the best comparison here is Incredibles 2 at $608M and Inside Out 2 at $653M. All three are Pixar sequels to much-loved films, had summer releases, strong reviews and word of mouth, and all three opened in the same range — Incredibles 2 opened a little higher at $182M, while Inside Out 2 came in slightly under at $154M. Using Incredibles 2’s legs (3.3x) gets Toy Story 5 to $528M, whereas Inside Out 2 legged even stronger at 4.2x its opening weekend. That would be unlikely here, but to use it as a ceiling, it would get Toy Story 5 to a massive $672M domestically.
Disclosure Day
Disclosure Day held second with $17 million, down 62% from its $44.5 million debut. That’s steep, but unsurprising given the so-so word of mouth. At $78.3 million through 10 days it’s tracking toward maybe $110M or so. A decent result but maybe a little underwhelming — still, getting over $100M in this busy summer corridor as an original movie is good for cinemas.
Obsession
Obsession was off just 25% in its sixth weekend to $14.2 million and up to $215.8 million domestic, now a 12.6x multiplier on a $17.2 million opening. This is the first time the movie has grossed less than its opening weekend, which is just remarkable. With $215M in the bank already, $250M feels close to being absolutely locked in. Once that happens, we’ll have to see how close it can get to Sinners, which came in at $280M domestically. Worldwide, Obsession is now over $300M as it continues to climb.
The Death of Robin Hood
The Death of Robin Hood managed just $2.6 million from 1,762 theaters on a C+ CinemaScore. That’s low, but this has been tracking pretty low for a while now, so a pretty unsurprising result here.