Minions & Monsters set to dip below the franchise average; Toy Story 5 climbing to $380M+; Supergirl gets its word-of-mouth test

Universal owns the holiday: Minions & Monsters is the July 4th event, and Illumination has done this exact play before. The clean comp is Minions: The Rise of Gru, which opened to $107M over the 2022 holiday frame and legged to $370.5M; Despicable Me 2 took the same midweek-into-July-4 slot in 2013 and did $83.5M across its three-day on the way to $368.1M. This time around, Minions & Monsters opens Wednesday and while we don’t have full numbers yet, it’s shaping up for around $14M on opening day. That’s quite a bit lower than the previous entries — about half of Despicable Me 4’s opening day. While the Minions films always open during this July 4th corridor, the calendar each year is slightly different, so it’s better to compare the overall 5-day openings. Even still, this shows that franchise fatigue is kicking in here. With this opening day, we could be headed to around $80M for the 5-day opening. That could equate to maybe $40–45M over the Fri–Sun portion.

Surprisingly, Minions & Monsters is getting the best reviews of the franchise, currently at around 90% — but initial audience reactions are softer than expected. A movie like this actually wants those audience reactions much more than it needs good reviews, so that could impact word-of-mouth if that trend continues over the full weekend. If it does come in at $80M like we’re seeing it now, that probably puts a $300M domestic total out of reach, with $200M–$250M the likely end range. While that’s strong, it is a concerning drop from the consistent $330–$370M range this franchise usually falls in, especially if it ends up on the lower end of our range. In the long-range July preview we said July’s three biggies (Minions & Monsters, Moana, The Odyssey) had a fairly set-in-stone $200M–$400M domestic range, but that we’d need to see them approach $300M+ for July to really hit big. We’ll wait to see what happens with Minions and report back later, but right now it’s looking to come in at the low end of that range, which means more heavy lifting is needed from Moana and The Odyssey in the weeks to come.

Toy Story 5 hands over the crown — but it will be a lot closer than we initially expected. It should be at around $335M heading into the weekend after a slightly steeper (but still solid) drop than expected last weekend at -56%. We’d hope to see it stabilize this weekend, but it also has direct competition opening, so another 50% drop may be in the cards, or maybe something a little better at between -45 and -50%. At 50% and $35M, it would be at around $370M after 17 days. While it will still easily become the biggest Toy Story ever, it’s definitely falling behind Incredibles 2 and Inside Out 2, with $600M (and probably $550M too) out of reach. $500M still feels good though, which comfortably places it ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $430M as the biggest hit of the year. That’s a title it will keep for the rest of July… until a certain spider comes along.

Supergirl already opened soft at $37.1M, and the sophomore frame is where weak word of mouth gets punished, especially for superhero movies which are famously front-loaded. A 58% Tomatometer and a B- CinemaScore rarely support a shallow second-weekend hold, and against a wall of family competition, a 60%+ drop would be expected here. If it can avoid -65% or more, that would actually be OK all things considered. Supergirl has no chance at $100M and looks to end up potentially at $80M, just ahead of Joker: Folie à Deux and Morbius… not exactly esteemed company. Unfortunately it’s doing even worse overseas, so don’t expect this one to get over $150M worldwide, joining Masters of the Universe as another bomb this summer.

Young Washington looks like a hit for Angel Studios — presales and tracking have really picked up over the last two weeks, to the point where it could even take the #3 spot away from Supergirl. Right now we’re seeing it at $12–15M, but it’s looking increasingly likely to hit the top end of that range. That would be a great start, even if it ends up front-loaded given the nature of the film and the July 4th weekend.

Finally starting to slow down a little, Obsession saw drops this week in the 30–40% range for the first time in its run. If it drops 30% this weekend, we’re looking at about $6M. It’s only a week from crossing $250M domestically, and we’re now seeing it probably finishing around $265M–$270M, just barely shy of Sinners’ $280M total. Worldwide should still land around $400M before the run finally ends.

Disclosure Day is at $96.9M through 19 days after a -53% third weekend, and this is the frame it finally crosses $100M. A fourth weekend around $4–5M keeps it pointed at the ~$110M finish our model projects on sub-3x legs. That’s a perfectly fine outcome for a $44M opener with a B CinemaScore — not a breakout, but a long way from a bomb.