Moana’s tracking craters to $44–53M — below the 2016 original and less than half of Moana 2

Moana opens this weekend and takes #1 without much of a fight, but the number is the story. Tracking has collapsed from a possible $100M+ opener just a month or two ago, to what now looks like something in the 50s range. That’s a huge comedown from the $139M opening of Moana 2 in November 2024 and could even open lower than the original movie from back in 2016, which did $56M on its way to $248M domestically and nearly $700M worldwide.

We’re looking at something in the $50M range, but if there’s a 4 on the front of the weekend number, it wouldn’t be surprising (although hopefully it doesn’t go as low as Snow White at $42M…). In fact, at this point, opening in the $40s is looking increasingly likely, unless walk-up business and good audience word-of-mouth can counteract those horrible reviews, currently in the 30% range. With a start like this, a $200M domestic finish is off the table, and instead Moana will be shooting to hit $150M (although if it opens on the lower end this may be a bridge too far). That’s about half of where expectations were (around $300M domestic total) before the summer began.

We said in our June long-range preview that July is heavily relying on Minions, Moana and The Odyssey hitting their high expectations to keep the month strong. With Minions opening way below the franchise average and now Moana set to open to about half of where we saw it hitting even a month ago, July is officially on rocky footing. If Moana and Minions can’t even get to our “worst-case” domestic totals of $200M, let alone $300M (which is where they needed to be for the month to feel strong), then all we can say is thank god for Spider-Man coming July 31 to at least give us a huge August.

The rest of the top 10 in theory should see strong holds due to the bad timing of July 4th falling on last Saturday, which dampened all business on the biggest moviegoing day of the week. And while Moana offers family competition, let’s hope Minions can have a strong hold so it can claw back some of the business it needs to make a push for $200M. For that number to still be in contention, it’ll need to really bounce back big with a drop in the 30% range for $25M or so, bringing its total to $110M+. This is a hard one to judge because Moana is direct competition but last weekend was very soft due to July 4th and the Wednesday opening, so will these cancel each other out for a normal drop (45–50%), or will Minions hold well as audiences go see it casually over the summer instead of upfront? Right now, we’re gonna say it does hold on stronger, with a drop less than 40% due to the factors mentioned, but maybe we’re a bit optimistic.

Likewise, Toy Story 5 should have a stronger hold this weekend, even if its holds overall have been a little underwhelming. It’s going into the weekend with mid-40s holds throughout the week and a new total of $386M, meaning it will cross $400M this weekend. Expect high teens or low 20s for the weekend. With its current trajectory, $500M is not at all guaranteed and might be a little out of reach now, but it should still easily cross $450M and $1B should still be locked in — we’ll know more after this weekend.

Young Washington is the one holdover that actually overperformed because of July 4th. Because of this, and the fact that its subject matter relied on the holiday for a strong opening, expect it to drop harshly this weekend to under $10M. That being said, it’s still an overperformer as it shoots for $45–50M total when all is said and done — easily double where it could have landed.

Supergirl had a really rough -77% second weekend, and while it should be closer to 45–50% this weekend, the damage has been done. Expect it to end up around $75M domestic — that’s about half of where we wanted to see it to call it a modest success. Obviously now, it’s clearly in the bomb category for the summer.