After the longest gap in the franchise’s history — 6½ years since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker closed out the Skywalker saga in December 2019 — Star Wars is finally back on the big screen. The Mandalorian & Grogu is a lock for #1, but the tracking is the story: $71–85M across the Friday–Sunday frame and $85–100M over the four-day Memorial Day window. That comfortably wins the weekend, and yet by Star Wars standards it’s startlingly modest — the 3-day figure would be the softest opening for any theatrical Star Wars film, slipping under Solo: A Star Wars Story’s $84.4M from this exact Memorial Day slot in 2018. Reviews have landed mixed, and on a reported $165M net budget that is not the launch Lucasfilm wanted for the brand’s theatrical comeback. The real question is the multiplier: Solo cratered after its soft start and legged just 2.5x to $213.8M, while a Mandalorian audience that has lived with these characters across three streaming seasons could hold considerably better. If word of mouth steadies, $200M domestic is in reach; if it plays like Solo, $175M is the honest target.
Michael slides to #2 and barely loses a step. The Lionsgate biopic took back the top spot last weekend and rolls into its fifth frame at $289.2M domestic through Tuesday, with the Memorial Day box to cushion the drop. Expect something in the high-20s percent range for roughly $15M and a cume near $305M by Sunday night. $350M domestic is locked, and worldwide the film is closing on $750M with Japan — Michael Jackson’s single biggest international market — still not in the mix. Once Japan opens, $900M is the floor and $1B becomes a live conversation. Five weeks in, betting against Michael has been a losing trade.
Obsession gets its first real word-of-mouth test, and the early read is excellent. Focus Features’ psychological horror opened to $17.2M and has already banked $23.8M through five days — the weekday holds were strong enough that it actually rose on cheap-ticket Tuesday. Horror weekend-two drops are typically brutal, -55% or worse, but a 96% Tomatometer, an A- CinemaScore, and the Memorial Day tailwind should soften that meaningfully. Call it a drop in the 40s rather than the 60s for around $9M and a cume near $37M. The $40–50M domestic range we floated on opening weekend now looks like the floor, and $55M is in play if the holiday holds.
Mortal Kombat II has nothing left to defend. After the genre-mandated -65% second-weekend collapse, the video-game sequel sits at $64.9M through Tuesday and now runs its third frame straight into a Star Wars juggernaut. Another drop in the 50s puts it near $5M for the weekend and a cume around $73M. $80M is the realistic ceiling and $100M has been out of reach for over a week. It is, almost to the dollar, the result we projected in the May long-range preview — not a disaster, but not the number Warner Bros. needs to justify MK3.
The Sheep Detectives keeps quietly out-legging expectations. The Amazon MGM family original is at $32.6M through Tuesday on a healthy 2.2x multiplier, and while The Mandalorian & Grogu will pull some of the family audience, the Memorial Day box is big enough for both. A hold in the 30s percent for roughly $6M would push it past $40M, and a $50M finish — once the ceiling of our model’s range — is now firmly the expectation.
The weekend’s other new wide is Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters, a dystopian shoplifting comedy with no meaningful tracking and a niche arthouse profile — anything mid-single-digits would be a genuine win in that lane. Among the holdovers, Project Hail Mary rolls into week 10 at $336.1M and should clear $340M over the holiday, still chasing $350M, while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is at $419.7M in week 8 and will inch toward a finish around $425M. Memorial Day Monday hands every one of them a fourth day on the official frame — a quiet but real bump on a weekend that belongs, for better or worse, to Star Wars.
The Mandalorian & Grogu opened to an estimated $81.96M, an easy #1 and Star Wars’ first theatrical outing since The Rise of Skywalker closed the Skywalker saga in December 2019. It landed right where the tracking pointed and within $2.5M of Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4M from this exact Memorial Day slot in 2018. That makes it the lowest opening for any theatrical Star Wars film, full stop. That being said, this is a decent debut considering the lowered expectations. Our model lands the film at $239M domestic on 2.92x legs, which would put it ahead of Solo. We’ll see if that plays out, but $200M should at least be a lock as the floor here. International added another ~$65 million for a $144M 3-day and a likely $165M Memorial Day long weekend global haul. Realistic worldwide range here is probably around $400–$450M.
The bigger story this weekend is Obsession. Focus Features’ psychological horror didn’t just hold in its second weekend — it grew, posting an estimated $22.4M, up an insane 30% on its $17.2M opening. Horror is the most front-loaded genre on the board; second weekends down 60% or worse are the rule, and a film adding 30% is the kind of result that surfaces once or twice a year across every genre combined. The Memorial Day box helped, but a +30% hold is almost pure word of mouth. Our prediction model moved Obsession from a Phase 1 read in the $40–50M range to a Phase 2 projection of $76M domestic on 4.41x legs — which is way too low and this should coast past $100M. Obsession is having the kind of breakout that acts as an exception that the model can’t predict — like Sinners last year. At $52.8M through ten days it has already passed what it was projected to finish at a week ago.
Michael slid to #3 with $20.0M, down a very strong 23% in its fifth weekend, and crossed $314.2M domestic. The Lionsgate biopic handed the top two spots to a Star Wars launch and a horror breakout and barely flinched. A 23% hold makes $350M an easy lock on its way to maybe $375M or more. $350M domestic is locked. Worldwide the film is at $780M and still hasn’t opened in Japan, Michael Jackson’s single biggest international market; once it does, $900M will be locked as it shoots for $1B.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 took fourth with $12.6M, off 29%, and will cross $200M domestic within a day or two — it’s currently at $196.1M. A 29% fourth-weekend drop with a Star Wars opening sucking up the oxygen is a genuinely strong hold and shows casuals decided to come out over the holiday weekend. The aim here looks to be around $230M and $650–$700M worldwide.
The Sheep Detectives had a fantastic drop, as we expected over the holiday weekend as the excellent word of mouth continues to spread. The Amazon MGM family original fell just 6% in its third weekend to $8.98M even against new family competition from The Mandalorian & Grogu. It now stands at $43.5M. With the third-weekend number in hand, our model moved it to a Phase 3 projection of $65M domestic on 4.34x legs. We had said $60+ was possible if it could break out as we predicted it might, and it’s doing exactly that as it looks to challenge $70M domestic.
The weekend’s other two wides opened quietly. Passenger took sixth with $8.7M, a decent start for the Paramount release considering the busy weekend, and Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters managed $3.7M in its arthouse lane. That’s a respectable number in that corner of the market, but we’d wager it’s coming in a little lower than what the studio was hoping for here.
As for the two veteran holdovers — The Super Mario Galaxy Movie added $3.2M in week 8 to reach $423.6M, and Project Hail Mary took $2.7M in its tenth weekend for $339.6M, still grinding toward the $350M mark it has chased for a month. That looks to now be out of reach as it didn’t get the boost it needed over the long weekend, but finalizing in the $340M–$350M range is still a fantastic result here, even if Michael will surpass it in a week or so.
