We’re coming off a really healthy start to the year and the summer, with May kicking things off in style thanks to $600M combined from Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 and strong performances from the mid-tier, which mostly all performed at or slightly above expectations. If there’s one downside of May, it’s that the back half looks comparably weaker. That does cause some issues as we head into June with less holdover strength, but there’s plenty of potential on the calendar, thanks to a bunch of legacy sequels plus a few low-floor / high-ceiling rolls of the dice. June’s performance will be dependent largely on the answers to these key questions:
- Can Toy Story 5 hold steady with the performance of 3 and 4 ($415M and $434M)?
- Can Supergirl perform at or above $200M+?
- Will Disclosure Day become an event film and break $150M?
- Will Jackass 5 and Scary Movie 6 become nostalgia hits ($100M+)?
The answers to these 4 questions will dictate the month’s ceiling. The floor case is likely around $800M for the month if a couple of these questions take a negative turn. The ceiling, if Toy Story 5 becomes the biggest in the franchise, plus the legacy nostalgia comedies do their expected numbers, and Supergirl OR Disclosure Day become true breakout hits, is likely $1.1B+.
Four years of June box office worth keeping in mind:
- 2022 — $815M. Top Gun: Maverick’s monster legs, Lightyear’s flop, Jurassic World Dominion stabilizing the franchise.
- 2023 — $891M. Across the Spider-Verse breakout, The Flash and Indiana Jones underperformance, Elemental’s modest but leggy run.
- 2024 — $1.05B. Inside Out 2’s $653M run powered the month, with strong support from Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($193M), Despicable Me 4 ($361M), and A Quiet Place: Day One ($138M); Horizon: An American Saga was the month’s major flop.
- 2025 — ~$890M. How to Train Your Dragon and F1 performing at expectations/slight breakouts, Elio and Karate Kid Legends flopping.
The Pixar variable is enormous — Inside Out 2 alone moved 2024 from a $400M base month to a $1B month. Our model has June 2026 landing around $900M–$1B, in line with 2025, stronger than 2022/2023, and possibly even competitive with 2024.
Spillover · Late MayWhat May is handing off to June
May 2026’s biggest variable rolls directly into June. The Mandalorian & Grogu opens May 22. With our current $170–240M domestic call, that’s roughly $50M of June dollars from a single carryover (we’ll see how it does once it opens). Backrooms opens May 29 with a $20–30M tracking range; its month-of-June revenue depends entirely on whether the A24/Kane-Parsons online fanbase translates to wider-release legs. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael will be winding down but may contribute a little more each. Total May-spillover June contribution: roughly $100–120M before any new June release fires a shot.
Weekend 1 · June 5–7Masters of the Universe takes the swing
Amazon MGM puts the month’s biggest opening-weekend question mark first. Masters of the Universe (Travis Knight directing, Nicholas Galitzine as He-Man, Idris Elba as Man-At-Arms) is the studio’s second-biggest swing of 2026 at a reported $170M production budget — behind only Project Hail Mary’s $200M — and would require roughly $400M+ worldwide just to break even. Industry tracking has the 3-day at $25–35M, which is exactly the band where this becomes a problem: Masters’ opening needs to clear $40M+ to give the international run any runway, and 80s nostalgia plays haven’t broken out in years. The trailers for this also look decidedly goofy, which may restrict casual audiences from giving it a go. The most useful comp is probably Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($61M opening, $157M domestic) as the high end and Tron: Ares at $73M domestic final as maybe the more realistic finish. We’re baking in an underperformance from this one with a sub-$100M finish.
Paramount’s Scary Movie 6, on the other hand, had a fantastic first trailer and this one feels ready to become a breakout hit. It’s the franchise’s first installment since 2013 and this is a genuinely beloved franchise with the original cast all returning; it can easily break out and do Scream 7 numbers ($64M opening, $122M domestic finish). That isn’t guaranteed, but $100M+ domestic should be the goal here, and we’re expecting it to connect with its audience.
Weekend 2 · June 12–14A big question mark for Spielberg
Only one wide release on the books — Steven Spielberg’s first since West Side Story (2021), Disclosure Day is probably the biggest question mark of June. This weekend needs it to at least perform decently to keep the month feeling healthy, but the trailers so far haven’t exactly set the world on fire, and of any film in June, this one will live or die based on reviews and word of mouth. $100M would be a nice goal here, but it also has the lowest floor and might not even clear that if things don’t work out. The rest of this weekend will be about the holdovers: the second weekend for Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie’s showing us how word of mouth plays out for those two. If those two crash and burn and Disclosure Day fails to break out, we’d be off to a bad start, as by now, May holdovers will mostly be out of gas.
Weekend 3 · June 19–21Toy Story 5 owns the month
This is the month’s main event and the success of June will likely come down to Toy Story 5. Pixar has had plenty of sequel hits these last few years — including Inside Out 2’s $653M run in 2024, and the last Toy Story hit a franchise-best $434M in 2019. The pattern for Pixar sequels in their post-2019 era points firmly upward when the IP is core to the brand. We’re looking for this to hit $400M to keep June on track. There’s a high floor for this one, probably around $300M, and it easily can land at $500M+ if the brand is still as strong 7 years on from the last one. Whether it lands at $350M or $550M will make or break the potential for June to match post-pandemic high points.
A24 opens Hugh Jackman’s The Death of Robin Hood, which we’re not factoring in as a big draw here, so any breakout here is just icing on the cake.
Weekend 4 · June 26–28Supergirl arrives in the DC reset
DC’s first wide post-Superman release lands at the end of the month, and the calendar setup is generous. Supergirl (Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, Craig Gillespie directing, James Gunn producing) opens with no direct adult blockbuster competition through its first three weekends. Tracking has been mostly informal, but published estimates put the opening in the $40–70M range, with DC having its first sequel test under the new James Gunn DCU regime. Like Disclosure Day, reviews and word of mouth will be important here, although the floor is likely higher after a well-received Superman last year. Superhero movies are not what they once were (last year saw several of them underperform), but the Superman comp ($125M opening, $354M total) set the high bar for 2025, which is a nice launchpad for Supergirl. We don’t expect anything close to that for Supergirl, but if it can hit $200M+, we’d consider that a strong result. The likely worst case is barely over $100M (think The Flash at $108M), with the best case at around $300M. We’re gonna say this hits somewhere north of $150M but fails to crack $200M, which would still be solid. We’ll see what the quality of the film turns out to be. The clear-runway through July 17’s The Odyssey is genuinely valuable; if it’s a crowd-pleaser, Supergirl has plenty of room to overachieve.
Paramount’s Jackass 5 opens against Supergirl. The franchise’s last entry, Jackass Forever (2022), opened to $23M and finished at $58M domestic on weaker post-pandemic comedy economics. Five years later with the cast aging out and ticket prices higher, Jackass 5 could continue that trend and open around $20M, or could get the nostalgia breakout boost they’re likely hoping for and open closer to $40M. Domestic total should be somewhere between $50–$100M.
The Month · OutlookWhat June 2026 adds up to
Add it up: DWP2, Michael, Sheep Detectives, Backrooms and The Mandalorian & Grogu add $120M as May carryovers and the new releases kick in the rest, getting June to a minimum of $800M, likely landing closer to $900M. We’re being relatively conservative here; if one or two of these break out beyond our expectations, that’s what gets us closer to the $1B mark.
Plenty of question marks (Will Supergirl and/or Disclosure Day break out, will nostalgia and hype carry Scary Movie to $100M+) leading to a large range, but the one can’t-fail movie is Toy Story 5. If it lands at $140M+ opening weekend with 3.5 – 4x legs, June 2026 is a $1B+ month and the summer is in very good shape. But if it underperforms at a $100M opening and 3–3.5x legs, things start to look shaky.