Toys, Capes, Aliens, and Comebacks

Amazon MGM puts the month’s biggest opening-weekend question mark first. Masters of the Universe (Travis Knight directing, Nicholas Galitzine as He-Man, Idris Elba as Man-At-Arms) is the studio’s second-biggest swing of 2026 at a reported $170M production budget — behind only Project Hail Mary’s $200M — and would require roughly $400M+ worldwide just to break even. Industry tracking has the 3-day at $25–35M, which is exactly the band where this becomes a problem: Masters’ opening needs to clear $40M+ to give the international run any runway, and 80s nostalgia plays haven’t broken out in years. The trailers for this also look decidedly goofy, which may restrict casual audiences from giving it a go. The most useful comp is probably Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($61M opening, $157M domestic) as the high end and Tron: Ares at $73M domestic final as maybe the more realistic finish. We’re baking in an underperformance from this one with a sub-$100M finish.

Paramount’s Scary Movie 6, on the other hand, had a fantastic first trailer and this one feels ready to become a breakout hit. It’s the franchise’s first installment since 2013 and this is a genuinely beloved franchise with the original cast all returning; it can easily break out and do Scream 7 numbers ($64M opening, $122M domestic finish). That isn’t guaranteed, but $100M+ domestic should be the goal here, and we’re expecting it to connect with its audience.

Only one wide release on the books — Steven Spielberg’s first since West Side Story (2021), Disclosure Day is probably the biggest question mark of June. This weekend needs it to at least perform decently to keep the month feeling healthy, but the trailers so far haven’t exactly set the world on fire, and of any film in June, this one will live or die based on reviews and word of mouth. $100M would be a nice goal here, but it also has the lowest floor and might not even clear that if things don’t work out. The rest of this weekend will be about the holdovers: the second weekend for Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie’s showing us how word of mouth plays out for those two. If those two crash and burn and Disclosure Day fails to break out, we’d be off to a bad start, as by now, May holdovers will mostly be out of gas.

This is the month’s main event and the success of June will likely come down to Toy Story 5. Pixar has had plenty of sequel hits these last few years — including Inside Out 2’s $653M run in 2024, and the last Toy Story hit a franchise-best $434M in 2019. The pattern for Pixar sequels in their post-2019 era points firmly upward when the IP is core to the brand. We’re looking for this to hit $400M to keep June on track. There’s a high floor for this one, probably around $300M, and it easily can land at $500M+ if the brand is still as strong 7 years on from the last one. Whether it lands at $350M or $550M will make or break the potential for June to match post-pandemic high points.

A24 also opens Hugh Jackman’s The Death of Robin Hood this same weekend, which we’re not factoring in as a big draw, so any breakout here is just icing on the cake.

DC’s first wide post-Superman release lands at the end of the month, and the calendar setup is generous. Supergirl (Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El, Craig Gillespie directing, James Gunn producing) opens with no direct adult blockbuster competition through its first three weekends. Tracking has been mostly informal, but published estimates put the opening in the $40–70M range, with DC having its first sequel test under the new James Gunn DCU regime. Like Disclosure Day, reviews and word of mouth will be important here, although the floor is likely higher after a well-received Superman last year. Superhero movies are not what they once were (last year saw several of them underperform), but the Superman comp ($125M opening, $354M total) set the high bar for 2025, which is a nice launchpad for Supergirl. We don’t expect anything close to that for Supergirl, but if it can hit $200M+, we’d consider that a strong result. The likely worst case is barely over $100M (think The Flash at $108M), with the best case at around $300M. We’re gonna say this hits somewhere north of $150M but fails to crack $200M, which would still be solid. We’ll see what the quality of the film turns out to be. The clear-runway through July 17’s The Odyssey is genuinely valuable; if it’s a crowd-pleaser, Supergirl has plenty of room to overachieve.

Paramount’s Jackass 5 opens against Supergirl. The franchise’s last entry, Jackass Forever (2022), opened to $23M and finished at $58M domestic on weaker post-pandemic comedy economics. Five years later with the cast aging out and ticket prices higher, Jackass 5 could continue that trend and open around $20M, or could get the nostalgia breakout boost they’re likely hoping for and open closer to $40M. Domestic total should be somewhere between $50–$100M.