The biggest story September produces will not come from a September movie. Sometime in September, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will pass Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $936,662,225, probably in the middle of the month, to become the highest-grossing domestic release ever made.
September is infamously one of the weakest months on the calendar, alongside maybe January. Both often coast on the fumes of the releases in the months prior. There are always exceptions to this, like It and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’s $100M+ September opening weekends. Don’t expect anything at that level this year.
Resident Evil and Practical Magic 2 are the month’s only titles with $100M+ potential (total, not opening weekend), unless a DreamWorks original can break out and find an audience too. And don’t forget about the Endgame re-release, which is not-so-quietly shaping up to be one of the biggest re-releases of this century.
September is a $520M to $630M month in a normal year and it has been for a decade. The one time it cleared $750M, IT did $327.5M of it. That is the shape of the bet every September makes: the month normally has no tentpole to give it a solid floor, so it’s always been about whether the genre pics can find an audience and have little breakouts.
Spillover · Late AugustWhat August is handing over
A lot, and most of it is two films. Spider-Man ended August at $891.8M through 31 days and will still be doing real weekly business all of September. We’d expect about $60M banked in September for Spidey.
The Odyssey is at $563.9M domestic, still at $14.4M in its seventh weekend. It’s never even dropped below $2M on any day in its release so far, and with IMAX screens keeping it deep into September, expect it to be making $1M+ a day most of the month, adding about $50M more to its total as it heads towards $610M+.
Below them the carryover thins out fast. Everything else is basically making pennies besides Coyote VS Acme, which may find a decent audience thanks to a small breakout opening and great reviews. From a $15.9M opening, it could feasibly find its way to around $50–$60M if all goes well.
Weekend 1 · Sep 4–7Holdovers dominate Labor Day; one small new release
Fall 2: Deadpoint
Labor Day falls on September 7 this year, the latest it can possibly land, which means the four-day frame sits entirely in September and the summer season gets a nineteenth week it does not usually get. In terms of new releases, it’s bleak. The first Fall opened to $2.5M in August 2022 and finished at $7.2M domestic and $21.8M worldwide, which is a modest result until you learn it was made for about $3 million. Lionsgate is going out Wednesday to grab the full four days, but it’s hard to imagine anyone is clamoring to see this one, although with the original opening to only $2.5M, they could feasibly double or triple the opening weekend here (even if the gross is still low).
The main story this weekend will be seeing what bump The Odyssey and Spider-Man get as they both head for their respective goals, and also seeing if Coyote VS Acme can hold well. The goal would be to try and stay basically flat with last weekend as a signal of good word of mouth into September.
Weekend 2 · Sep 11–13Practical Magic 2 drops twenty-eight years later
Practical Magic 2
The original grossed $46.9M domestic in 1998 and was written off as a flop on a $60M budget. It then spent almost three decades becoming the kind of film people quote and rewatch every year. Warner Bros. is releasing the sequel entirely due to that second audience, bringing back both leads that made the first one special, and hoping it can open to at least $30M.
If it can get to $30M, count that as a success here. Anything more is a great sign, but it will probably need to open closer to $40M for a shot at hitting $100M domestically. It’s hard to say right now, but there are signs forming that $40M could be possible, with some even seeing it up at $50M. We’re not seeing the breakout signs that would necessarily point to an opening that high right now, but the floor seems to have increased from $20M to $30M, which is a great sign and enough to look for an opening close to $40M if things go well. That’s enough to probably get it to $100M+ domestically and also give September a much-needed boost. Even if it opens lower at $30M, it can ride that to around $75M domestically or so, which we should count as a win. Of course, reviews and word of mouth will play a big role here.
Two smaller openers share the date. Runner and The Uprising go out the same day, both of them looking at single digits with small marketing pushes. Realistically, this frame is Practical Magic 2 against whatever is left of the Labor Day holdovers, finishing up under $100M all in.
Weekend 3 · Sep 18–20The month’s breakout potential
Resident Evil
Every one of the four biggest September openings ever is a horror film. It did $123.4M in 2017, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice $111.0M in 2024, It: Chapter Two $91.1M in 2019 and The Conjuring: Last Rites $84.0M last year. Horror breakouts own September, and Sony has put an $80M R-rated reboot from the hottest director in the genre right in the middle of it.
You would think this forecast looks way too high until you see who is attached as the director. Zach Cregger’s last two films were Barbarian, which opened to $10.5M and legged to $40.8M on a $4.5M budget, and Weapons, which opened to $43.5M and finished at $151.6M domestic and $266.0M worldwide on $30M. More importantly, both rode great reviews and word of mouth, and after Weapons, people are genuinely excited to see what he does next. That’s more than enough to pull the Resident Evil franchise out of its slow decline over the decades.
Unless something falls apart in the next few weeks, we think this genuinely can top $40M on opening weekend, which would be the biggest opening in the history of the Resident Evil franchise by a distance. If it can go any higher depends entirely on if the reviews materialize and if buzz can grow from here. Either way, we feel like this can ride that opening to $100M+ domestically, and when you add international in, that’s a healthy profit on the $80M budget (which is genuinely high by horror standards).
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom opens the same day through GKIDS, and Aardman has never been a wide-release proposition in America. The people who love these movies adore them, but they’ve never been wide hits. Hopefully it can get to the high single digits on opening weekend.
Weekend 4 · Sep 25–27DreamWorks, and a ghost from 2019
Forgotten Island
DreamWorks has run this play before and it worked. The Wild Robot opened to $35.0M on September 27, 2024 and finished at $268.0M domestic, an original animated film with no franchise behind it that turned a soft opening into a 7.7x run because families kept coming back through October. Transformers One tried the same slot a week earlier that year, opened to $24.6M and stopped at $59.1M.
The difference between those two outcomes is entirely word of mouth, and that is what to watch here. It also has to be said that animation can struggle when it’s in the adventure genre, and this looks squarely in that realm. It also does not have a bestselling novel backing it up like The Wild Robot did. At this point, it feels more likely this one lands in the teens than past $30M, but it could have a shot to break $20M and ride good word of mouth (if it gets it) to a solid total when all is said and done. We do think breaking $100M domestic, at this point, appears out of reach.
The other September 25 release is one that we already have some data on: Marvel is putting Avengers: Endgame back in theatres as Endgame Encore, with a new introduction, unseen footage and an end tag, in IMAX and the Infinity Vision houses, as the runway to Avengers: Doomsday in December. Normally, re-releases do $5–15M, but coming so close to Doomsday, with a bunch of unseen footage, this one is gearing to potentially be the biggest re-release in recent history. Presales have already started and they suggest it will easily go beyond $20M, and could even crack $30–40M on opening weekend. It’s so close to Avatar’s worldwide total (currently Endgame is #2 all-time worldwide behind only Avatar), that an opening this big here and around the world could put it within spitting distance of overtaking it for the top spot. Either way, this re-release is a genuine boost for September and this is the only weekend where we expect 2 decent opening weekends.
The Bottom LineThree films decide the month
September 2026 comes down to Resident Evil, Practical Magic 2, and the Endgame re-release.
If those three can all hit their stride, Resident Evil getting to $150M like Weapons, Practical Magic cracking $100M, and Endgame opening to $40M, then the month can maybe clear $600M. If not, this lands around $500–$550M and looks like every other September.