Brand New Day aims for a -58% or better hold for the 2nd weekend record; shoots past $600M domestic; Odyssey set to pass The Dark Knight Rises

The math on this is unusually clean. Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to $360,091,572. The all-time second weekend is Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $149,202,860, which means Brand New Day needs to hold better than -58.6% to take it. Avengers: Endgame, the closest structural comp there is, dropped -58.7% in 2019. So it really comes down to whether this film holds one-tenth of a percentage point better than Endgame did. Boxoffice Pro is at $150–160M, Box Office Theory at $142–160M, and Deadline notes that a routine -60% ease lands $144M and third place all-time. We think these sound about right and it’s really hard to say whether it will be able to hit $150M or not — it’ll be close. Take out the previews, and the film made a pure $288M over the opening three days. With a 50% drop from that pure weekend, Brand New Day gets to $144M, which would be a 60% drop from the overall weekend and could be a good starting point.

The reason to take the high side is the weekday curve, not the opening. Monday did $47.06M — the biggest Monday in history. Tuesday did $42.01M — the biggest Tuesday in history, past the $39.2M Spider-Man: Far From Home posted in July 2019. That is a -11% Monday-to-Tuesday hold, which is really great at this stratospheric level. There’s also no competition and it’ll get some IMAX screens for the first time, both helping with the hold this weekend.

The near-term milestone is an in-year one. Toy Story 5 has owned 2026 since June and sits at $464.6M through 47 days. Brand New Day passes it on Thursday, in five days. After that the target list runs out of contemporaries entirely and the film is measured against the all-time chart: Force Awakens’ $936,662,225 is the domestic record, and it’s very much in play. If the movie does another $65–$70M or so over Wednesday and Thursday, that gets us to about $515–520M before the weekend even begins. Add in the likely $150M or so for the weekend numbers and it’ll be at a colossal $665M domestic by Sunday. That would already place it at #10 on the all-time list, just above Jurassic World and just below Titanic and Avengers: Infinity War, which both are sitting at around $675M. At that point, it’s less than $300M away from surpassing The Force Awakens to become the biggest film of all time in North America. And no, this is not accounting for inflation, this is raw dollars in the bank. Our model, which is still in its opening-weekend phase and will update after the second weekend, has the domestic finish at $1.07B–$1.14B on 3.08x legs. No film has ever finished a domestic run above $1 billion. We’ll know more on whether this one can by Sunday.

The Odyssey stands at $414.1M and needs $34.1M to pass The Dark Knight Rises’ $448,139,099. It will do that on Saturday, and Christopher Nolan will have a new second-highest-grossing domestic film. The forecasts are split wider than usual here — Boxoffice Pro has $25–35M, Box Office Theory $33–42M — and we land at $32–36M, closer to the higher call, because the weekday grosses are still very strong and the -43% hold last weekend was fantastic considering how big Brand New Day opened. This weekend, it gets to recover and could be in for a drop closer to its stunning -27% second weekend hold.

At a 30% drop, we get $35M; 35% gets it to $33M. We see it somewhere in this range, which would get it to around $460M+ by Sunday. It’ll coast past $500M by the following Sunday, and then the next real number in front of it will be The Dark Knight’s $533,345,358, Chris Nolan’s biggest movie domestically from back in 2008. Expect that record to fall as The Odyssey shoots for $550M+. Worldwide is $930.9M through the July 31 international reporting, so $1 billion is a formality by Sunday.

The spread on Super Troopers 3 is the widest on the board: Deadline has Searchlight booked at 2,700 sites eyeing $9–10M, Box Office Theory is down at $3–6.5M, and Boxoffice Pro’s July long-range call was $6–9M. We take $5–8M. The number everyone reaches for is the 2018 sequel’s $15.1M opening, and that comp does not transfer — it opened on April 20, which for this particular franchise is not a release date so much as a stoner holiday, no doubt helping a little for that film. There is no Tomatometer with two days to go and only six reviews logged. Studios screen comedies late when the reviews are not going to help, and Searchlight is a distributor that knows exactly when to lean on critics. This time, the buzz just doesn’t seem to be around at all, so expect around half of that opening.

Will Gluck has done this exact thing before, and it worked. Anyone But You opened to $6,000,344 in December 2023 and finished at $88,319,668 — a 14.7x multiplier, one of the great modern rom-com legs, built on a Christmas corridor and a cast pairing that went viral. One Night Only has neither of those. It has a 52% Tomatometer on 54 reviews, a high-concept premise that has to be explained before it can be sold, and the second weekend of the biggest film in history sitting on top of it.

We’d love to see this one get to double digits, but it may have to settle for something just under and hope for good word of mouth to keep it as the default date night choice for the next few weeks.

Minions & Monsters jumped 44% on Tuesday to $1.67M, the biggest discount-day move in the top five and enough to beat Toy Story 5 outright for the day despite trailing it every weekend since June. Some of that is the discount — family titles take the Tuesday bump harder than anything else on the chart — but a 44% jump against Toy Story’s 8% and Moana’s 14% is a real gap, and it says the parents still bringing kids out five weeks in are choosing this one. It does now look like it may not get to $200M domestic, but it will come close, ending somewhere close to $190M when all is said and done.

Toy Story 5 has been the biggest film of 2026 domestically, but loses the crown this week to Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and will soon also get passed by The Odyssey as it settles for third. The run itself has been excellent in its own lane: $464.6M on 2.9x legs, $1.07B worldwide, a -33% seventh weekend that is a better hold than either family title beneath it managed. It’ll continue to coast along through August as it heads for around $485M total in the states.

Moana continues to hold up ok but worse than the other two family films; it should do $3M+ or so as it heads to a finish close to $130M domestic and may get close to $300M worldwide. That’s 2.7x legs, which is pretty average for a kids film in the middle of summer — 3x should really be the minimum/floor. Disney lost 1,005 theaters on it last weekend, and that is exhibitors reaching the same conclusion the numbers already had.