Brand New Day set to cross $770M; PAW Patrol and Oak Street both aim for mid $20M openings, while The Odyssey shoots for $500M+

Spider-Man: Brand New Day passes $700 million domestic today, the seventh film in history to get there and the fourth Marvel Studios title after Avengers: Endgame ($858.4M), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($804.8M) and Black Panther ($700.4M). It took 13 days. The next marker is sharper: the all-time third weekend belongs to Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $90,241,673, with Avatar second at $68,490,688 and Avatar: The Way of Water third at $67,409,155. Spider-Man could wind up close to those two Avatar flicks this weekend, if it can hold closer to 50% than 60%.

Brand New Day fell -60% in weekend two to $144,254,386, which was itself the third-biggest second weekend ever. Endgame eased 57% in its third frame off a comparable base, and that is the closest structural comp available and would give us $62M for the weekend. No Way Home’s -34% third weekend had the New Year’s holiday corridor underneath it, so isn’t a usable comparison here. To clear Avatar it needs to hold at -52.5% or better, which is certainly doable, but could prove a bar a little too high to clear. Even if it settles at $62M, that would bring it to around $780M by Sunday, placing it just behind Avatar as the 5th biggest movie of all time domestically… after just three weekends.

Assuming $775M by Sunday, Brand New Day would need just ~$160M more to unseat Star Wars: The Force Awakens as the biggest movie of all time domestically. That feels basically locked at this point, barring a collapse this weekend or next, which is unlikely. $1B is still a toss-up and at this point hard to call. The fact that it’s even on the table and very much in sight is testament to just how massive this box office run is.

The tracking on The End of Oak Street wasn’t looking great, settling in the mid-teens, but this last week or two has started to turn around in a very promising way. We’re seeing presales start to ramp up right before reviews started dropping… and once they dropped at 83%, that only increased the pacing here. We’re now seeing $20M as the floor here with an outside shot to land close to $30M. Nobody was buying a ticket to Oak Street on brand, so the only lever available in the final week was word getting out that the movie is good, and it got out. The 67 Metacritic says critics like it rather than love it, so Friday night CinemaScore is what decides whether this is a crowd pleaser or not.

The comp is Weapons, Warner Bros. own August original from last year, which opened to $43.5M and finished $151,572,492 on strong word of mouth. Oak Street is not opening that big. But it is $80M net budget at 3,400 theaters with IMAX and PLF behind it, and the composition is unusually broad for a creature movie; Hathaway is testing as a strong first choice among women, which is not the audience a dinosaur picture normally leads with.

Warner Bros. has not opened a 2026 release above $40M in seven tries, with theatrical revenue down 46% year over year, so the bar here was never a blockbuster. It is a movie that opens fine and then legs out through the rest of August. At $25M on a 3x multiplier this is a $75M domestic film with real potential at a solid international run and potential for break even. We’re seeing it right around $25M, which would put it at a very similar level to the other new opener.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie arrives into the emptiest family lane of the summer. Moana is in week five and has dropped -47% two weekends running, down to $2.98M, while Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are also both wrapping their runs and in the low single digits this weekend. The market is ready for another kids film and young kids love Paw Patrol. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie set the series record at $22,764,354 in 2023 and legged to $65,343,309. We’re seeing the potential for this to go a little higher and maybe approach $25M this time around.

The floor is known too. PAW Patrol: The Movie opened to $13,629,284 in 2021 and finished $40,127,371, and it did that day-and-date on Paramount+. Dino has a clean theatrical window and $25M already in the bank from 30 overseas territories, which is a stronger position than either predecessor had at this stage. We are calling $23–28M, hopefully getting this one to $70M+ domestically as a final.

The Odyssey took the number two spot of 2026 on Tuesday and it is not giving it back. It sits at $472,160,345 against Toy Story 5’s $472,138,915 as of Wednesday. The Pixar sequel is adding roughly $800,000 a day in week eight; Odyssey added $5.6 million on Tuesday alone. Drops this week have been around 40%; a similar drop this weekend gets The Odyssey to $19M.

That would put Odyssey past $500 million domestic either Sunday or Monday. Its weekend drops have been -27%, -43% and -38%, so expect something similar to last weekend here as well. Our model still has it finishing around $567M on 4.6x legs. Christopher Nolan already has his highest-grossing film ever here at $1.1 billion worldwide, and $550M+ domestic is the realistic landing spot, which gets it to #19 all-time.

Angel Studios puts The Brink of War into 2,000 theaters, with Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan and Jared Harris as Mikhail Gorbachev across one weekend at the 1986 Reykjavik summit. Boxoffice Pro is at $3–5M and that is the right neighbourhood. Angel’s distribution model front-loads hard — its audience is mobilised through the platform before release rather than discovered in the multiplex — so Friday tells you the whole story here, and the Saturday hold tells you whether anyone outside that base showed up. This should stay in the single digits; we’re seeing it at around $5M.

One Night Only opened to $5,508,045 and has the most interesting weekday shape on the board: +53% Monday to Tuesday, the largest bump in the top ten. Discount Tuesday inflates everyone, but nobody else moved that far. Are people discovering the film after a soft opening? If it can manage a drop in the 40s, that’s a fine hold here, although overall this still counts as a disappointment.