Verity is set to open at #1 while Digger fights four holdovers for second

A month ago this looked like a coin flip with Digger. Now it isn’t close: studio tracking sits at $27–30M and presales have been strong all week, while Digger’s have gone the other way. Colleen Hoover adaptations have a wide range here. It Ends with Us opened to $50.0M in 2024 on its way to $148.5M, while Regretting You managed $13.7M last October.

Verity has a lot more in common with the first of those. The book is one of Hoover’s biggest, it’s an R-rated twisty thriller in the same lane as The Housemaid used to leg out to $126.4M from a $19.0M start, and it has two stars the audience for this actually shows up for. The reviews are not helping (47% on Rotten Tomatoes), but that barely dented It Ends with Us and we don’t expect it to matter much here either - no one is expecting this to be an Oscar winner. Some of the tracking points above $35M, but with this much of the audience coming from presales we think it lands a bit under that, somewhere around $30M, which would be a very strong start.

This is the one that has fallen hardest. Tracking had Digger at $20–29M a week ago, and presales have since come in much lower than One Battle After Another, which opened to $22.0M around the same time last year. The trades now have it anywhere from $7.5M to $15M, with the studio at $12–15M.

The comparison people keep making is The Bride!, which opened to $7.1M on an $80M budget in March and dropped 70% the next weekend, and we don’t think it gets quite that low. Cruise still means something on a Friday night, the reviews are split right down the middle (50% on Rotten Tomatoes) rather than bad, and there’s enough star power here to hopefully keep this over $10M, even if the way it was sold has been quite alienating to a broad audience. So we’re looking at around $13M. On a $125M budget that’s a tough result for Warner Bros., in its (potentially) last release as a standalone studio.

After a 62% drop last weekend in the most crowded frame of the month, Resident Evil’s weekdays have settled down: Tuesday was up 44% on Monday. Weapons held 37% in its third weekend, and while that feels like the ceiling here, the competition this weekend is lighter than last, so we’re expecting something closer to a 45–50% drop and around $12M. That keeps it on track for $150M domestic and puts it past $250M worldwide by the end of the weekend, which is a great result on a $75M budget.

Endgame won last weekend with $26.1M and played exactly as front-loaded as we thought: Saturday was down 23% on Friday and Monday fell 72%. That kind of run usually means a steep second weekend, and we see it losing more than half, landing near $9M. Either way it’s pushed Endgame’s lifetime close to $900M, which it will hit very soon before the rerelease wraps up.

Heart of the Beast jumped 71% from Monday to Tuesday, and with an A- from audiences this looks like the one that holds. A drop around 40% gets it to roughly $12M, which could be enough to finish ahead of Endgame and possibly Resident Evil. It still has a lot to do on an $82M budget, but the legs look like they’ll be there. If it holds better than 50% this weekend, things are looking good.

Primetime came in way past its tracking last weekend, but the B CinemaScore is the thing to watch. We’re thinking it drops around 50% to about $10M. That would still have it past $30M after ten days on a $15M budget, which is a fantastic result for A24 either way.